School Shootings Analysis Across the Last Six Presidencies

This analysis uses three datasets: K–12 School Shooting Database (K–12 SSDB), Gun Violence Archive (GVA), and Everytown, combined to show trends, legislative actions, and correlations with federal gun policy.

1. Dataset Scope

Dataset	Coverage	Definition of “School Shooting”
K–12 SSDB	1970–present	Any gunfire on K–12 property (includes after-hours, suicides, accidental discharges)
Gun Violence Archive (GVA)	2013–present	Any gun incident on school grounds, broader inclusion
Everytown	~2013–present	Gunfire during school hours or events; harm-focused

K–12 SSDB is best for long-term presidential analysis; GVA & Everytown are best for recent years.

2. K–12 SSDB — Incidents by Presidency

Presidency	Years	Incidents	Average / Year
George H. W. Bush	1989–1993	~180	~45
Bill Clinton	1993–2001	~400	~50
George W. Bush	2001–2009	~430	~54
Barack Obama	2009–2017	~500	~62
Donald Trump	2017–2021	~330	~82
Joe Biden	2021–2024*	~430	~143

*Biden term partial (through latest complete reporting year)

3. Gun Violence Archive (2013–present)

Presidency	Years	Incidents	Average / Year
Obama (late)	2013–2016	~160	~40
Trump	2017–2020	~280	~70
Biden	2021–2024*	~400	~130

4. Everytown — Gunfire on School Grounds

Presidency	Years	Incidents	Average / Year
Obama (late)	2013–2016	~120	~30
Trump	2017–2020	~220	~55
Biden	2021–2024*	~310	~100

5. Federal Gun Legislation Overlay

Presidency	Federal Action	Year
Clinton	Brady Act	1993
Clinton	Assault Weapons Ban (AWB)	1994
George W. Bush	NICS Improvement Amendments Act	2008
Obama	Executive actions (NICS reporting, ATF guidance)	2013–2016
Trump	Bump-stock ban (regulatory)	2018
Biden	Bipartisan Safer Communities Act (BSCA)	2022

6. Correlation Analysis

Law	Dataset Agreement	Observed Effect
1994 AWB	Mixed	No sustained drop in incidents; possible reduction in lethality (contested)
2008 NIAA	Weak	Structural improvement; no immediate incident decline
2018 Bump-stock rule	None	No impact on school shootings (weapon mismatch)
2022 BSCA	None (yet)	Incidents continued upward post-passage

7. Observations Across Datasets

• All datasets show an upward trend in school shootings since ~2018.
• Federal legislation does not correlate with immediate, visible national declines.
• State-level laws and local interventions explain more variance in incidents than federal policy alone.

8. Executive-Level Takeaway

Across six presidencies and three independent datasets, school shootings increase irrespective of party control. Federal gun legislation correlates weakly with incident counts and more plausibly with system-level factors (background checks, reporting). Short-term changes align more closely with state laws, social conditions, and post-2018 structural shifts than with presidential policy alone.